What It Takes to Impeach a President?
The U.S. judicial system is based on democracy and will take a fair trial to press charge against any citizen. Towards the highest authority like a President, a fair vote in the House and Senate circles will be conducted in order to impeach the candidate.
According to the United States Constitution in Article II, Section IV, the clause states that a President can be removed from office following “Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.”
To begin with the process, any member of the Lower House of Representatives can bring up an inquiry against a President to be impeached, which then will be voted for the case to be addressed. The votes must be based on 2/3 majority of the House members before it can be valid and move upward to the Senate.
Among the Senate in the Congress, the decision to convict the President will be based on a majority vote on 2/3 ratio again. In simple definition, the House will act like a prosecutor while the Senate will act as the jurors. Hence, only the Senate circle carries the authority to issue a final conviction on the President that will order an impeachment or removal from office.
By definition, an impeachment simply means the indictment in criminal law against a Government official but it may not necessarily remove the person from the official post. Meanwhile, an impeachment and subsequent removal of the President from office doesn’t imply the acquisition of the criminal charges that he/she might have committed during or after the official term.
In the history of U.S. Presidential office, President Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton are the only Presidents to be impeached but no President has ever been convicted and removed from office. In the separate case of President Richard Nixon, he faced the Watergate scandal and tendered resignation before an impeachment was supposed to be brought on him.
Currently, President Trump is going through the first round of inquiry on his involvement with Ukrainian interference. In July, Trump has solicited President of Ukraine to gather dirt on his Democratic political peer, Joe Biden and his son. Earlier in second quarter, Biden has announced his intention to run election in 2020 for contesting against Trump. Unknowingly, Trump is seen as inviting foreign operatives to interfere in his domestic political arena while focusing too much in uprooting his opponent!
Shortly after the news of impeachment in progress, President Trump announced he might reach a trade deal with China earlier before his term ends, which contradicts his comment of not needing such an agreement just a week ago. Obviously, Dow market reacts more to the positive trade deal with China dispute than the impeachment.
Some market analysts forecast that Trump will not be impeached while others say the impeachment will not be good reason to remove him from office. Dow market and U.S. Bond markets have been moving wildly in whipsaw with correlation to precious metals, oil and Dollar. The imposition of trade tariff on Chinese imports will begin on 15 October and relationship with China towards year-end on resolving the trade conflicts will become uncertain due to the outcome of the impeachment results.
In our opinion, October will be a more volatile month than the preceding month. BREXIT is creating a mass in U.K. with lawmakers calling PM Johnson to resign now after he has called for an unlawful suspension in Parliament. The restoration of oilfield production in Saudi remains a huge concern to investors in anticipation of its public listing over the year-end. Stay on for the market watch.
~ DAR Wong is a veteran in global financial markets based in Singapore. The opinions are solely at his own. He can be reached at email@example.com
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