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Weekly Market Forecast ------The Return of Bitcoin
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This Week Highlight - The Return of Bitcoin
When Bitcoin reached the first historical high at almost USD20,000 during December 2017, the world turned crazy and many non-believers started to ogle at the market and wondered if that “virtual thing” was real! After the double top was formed in January 2018, many investors began to time their entry and planned to buy on the downward retracement. Ironically, the down trend lasted for about 12 months and reached below USD4,300 in January 2019.
Since then, we did a backtracking on the bitcoin trend and tried to find correlational instrument to this “virtual currency”. Theoretically, we found out that the USD index (USDX) plunged from 103.00 to 88.00 level during the same time that bitcoin surged to its first high in December /January 2018. Rewinding back to further timeline, the identical falling trend in Dollar was in the 1H 2009 and 2H 2010 but bitcoin was still in the beginning stage of the circulation with little market capitalization. Thus, it might be meaningless to make a correlation between them during that period!
Looking at the current situation, bitcoin has initiated a new bullish trend and surpassed USD16,000 level recently that was a 34-month high. Simultaneously, the Dollar Index is trading at 93.00 region that is quite similar to the same scenario to early 2019, though we agree there might more variables in this equation. However, what we gather is the potential of further devaluation in Dollar after the U.S. Presidential office settles down in January, which could quickly follow by a new round of stimulus. In such a situation, the rise of bitcoin in near future might even climb higher than what we saw in early 2018.
In the past decades, when Dollar fell, the inverse hedge naturally sept global investors’ fund into Crude and precious metal. In current years, we have all witnessed the gradual demand fall in Crude on global basis due to the rise of green energy and electric vehicles. Hence, what will be the alternative instrument used to counterbalance falling Dollar beside Gold?
Though we all agree that the counter currencies that are used to hedge against Dollar include euro, pound, Swiss kroners, Canadian dollar, Aussie Dollar, Japanese yen and Chinese Yuan, nevertheless the U.S. Government will not stake on one, few or all these currencies for safety net. Since the 1970s, the U.S. Federal Reserve has been grabbing the control and reserve in Dollar, Gold and Crude. No matter what the global economy flairs, U.S. Government will be benefitted from one strong rise among these three instruments. Thus, the new rise of bitcoin into world recognition may simply mean that it has to be largely held in custodian and control heavily by the U.S. Government. Will that be possible?
This is just a two cents worth of guesswork for you to ponder. In any case, the unfold trend of bitcoin in coming months will self-reveal more stories than what we can randomly guess here.
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The U.S. stimulus worth USD1.9 Trillion has been approved by the House and waiting to be signed into law by President Biden. Target timeline to complete the signatory on the dotted line is today, 14 March 2021. That also means President Biden has to execute his pen power in order to continue the issuance of unemployment benefits to low-income Americans after the expiry date. Last week, Dow Jones market clocked the historical fresh high again on Wednesday when it closed at 32,297 points. The worries on inflation pressure as an eye-washer to long traders have become a bear-trap. Sometime back, we have mentioned in this snippet on the ironical sarcasm of inflation in U.S. economy while so many Americans are cash-strapped due to loss of jobs. Since we are expecting the U.S. stimulus to be rolled out in March, the expanse of this public fund will be able to last for estimate 5-6 months. Practically, we expect the inflation will build up at strongest level sometime in mid-April to end
Hello everyone. It’s a bit late to do analysis for trading today. Here is my analysis support and resistant guide for your. FUTU support level is 123 now. Please take note. It must close above 126, then, you can continue to hold. Otherwise, your sell some profit first. To average down your cost. Once the price breakdown 123, will look for the support at 116. If the price breakup 126 and we can continue to hold. I will give your future resistant. TESLA for short trade, it went to above 600 and drop again. It still look’s good. If not breakdown to 550 again. We still look for TESLA sideway between 550~600 for the next 3 to 5 trading days. APPLE, no matter how still at the normal price range movement. Support at 122, resistant at 128. I dont think it breakdown 120 yet. Still can hold for long term. NIO looks went to 34.9 and drop again. If it hit 32 and not breakdown, it can hold for long term. It look’s good for NIO. Dont need to worry too much. Anyway, market movement we cant predic
After the price movement and Q1 2021 Financial report, FUTU Just hit above 130 yesterday premarket. So, I provide 120 as support level. Because the prive movement, the market support level is up. Once breakdown 124, i suggest take profit first. 130 still today’s resistant. Once can stay above 130, we look for next higher resisant at 140.If the price breakdown below 120, please do not buy as low first. Next support level at 112. Good Luck.